Experience Senior Living · Sales Conversions & Trends · 24-Month View (May 2024 – Apr 2026)
Analysis of new lead volume trends across 20 ESL communities, May 2024 – April 2026. Two agency transitions are noted as context for interpreting momentum shifts.
Total new leads were running in the 418–457/month range in the months leading up to May 2025. Volume climbed steadily after the transition, hitting 850 in Oct 2025 and peaking at 886 in Jan 2026. That said, new community launches contributed significantly to the aggregate — the underlying per-community story is more nuanced.
Gallery at Fort Collins ramped from near zero (mid-2024 launch) to 82–124 leads/month by late 2025. Gallery Tampa launched in June 2025 and hit 67–98 leads/month within months. Gallery at Hacienda Lakes surged through 2025, peaking at 104 in August. These three communities alone account for a large portion of the portfolio's aggregate growth — worth separating from established-community performance when evaluating agency impact.
From 52 leads/month in May 2024 down to 15–16 by early 2026 — a two-year slide that spans both agency transitions and doesn't show signs of recovery. This appears structural rather than seasonal. Walnut Crossing is also trending lower, dropping from ~19–26/month in mid-2024 to single digits by early 2026.
Peaked at 67 in June 2024 and has trended down to 24 leads in April 2026. The decline is consistent and crosses both agency transitions, suggesting a market or competitive dynamic rather than a media execution issue.
Cape Coral had a spike to 112 in June 2024, settled into the 30–50 range for about 18 months, then jumped to 114 in January 2026 before dropping back to 44–49. The Jan 2026 number is an outlier worth investigating — it may reflect a CRM import or data reconciliation event rather than real inquiry volume.
Running 90–145 leads/month in the stable mid-period and 92–141 in recent months, it's the clear volume leader. However, the 220-lead spike in Aug 2024 appears to be a CRM import event (similar to Falls Church's Jun 2024 spike of 229) and should not be treated as real demand.
April 2026 is the first full month under the new agency, and it came in at 626 leads vs. 697 in March — a ~10% dip. It's too early to read that as a trend; one month of data at the start of a transition is noise as much as signal. May and June will be the real test of whether the new agency hits the ground running.
Reserve Sarasota (first leads Jan 2026), Reserve Cherry Creek (first leads Dec 2025), and Reserve Strathmore Square (active since mid-2025) are all too new to read meaningful trends. Reserve at Falls Church is real but modest at 15–47 leads/month once the June 2024 anomaly is set aside.